Demand for oil to drop


Once U.S. production from shale and tight oil plays plateaus and non-OPEC production as a whole declines in the late 2020s, the Middle East once again becomes the primary supplier.

The publication argued that the shale oil and gas revolution in the USA continues and that, by the the mid-2020s, the U.S. is projected to become the world's largest liquefied natural gas exporter and a net oil exporter by the end of that decade.

The US Energy Information Administration estimated that the US became the world's top petroleum and natural gas producer in 2012. But the expected increase would put the USA further into uncharted territory.

Still, there are many other factors at play over the long term.

U.S. oil and gas output is projected to surpass that of any other country in history, due to "a remarkable ability to unlock new resources cost-effectively".

The IEA, which tracks the energy for 29 countries, said the USA - once reliant on imports - is becoming the "undisputed global oil and gas leader".

"With the United States accounting for 80% of the increase in global oil supply to 2025 and maintaining near-term downward pressure on prices, the world's consumers are not yet ready to say goodbye to the era of oil", the IEA report stated.

"The U.S. [shale] oil industry avoided the blow by morphing into a leaner, more agile version of its former self; it has since proved remarkably resilient to lower prices", the IEA said. This latest move comes as investors expect figures to show USA oil production has risen.

The report says that global energy demand is expected to grow 30 percent by 2040 and that demand for oil is not expected to peak until 2040. The IEA noted the USA shale sector's history of beating expectations; the shift to electric vehicles putting downward pressure on oil demand; and changes in estimates of recoverable shale reserves. Two recent reports point to an improved oil patch outlook.

US shale exploration and production companies weathered a global, two-year industry glut by tightening belts, cutting costs and adopting novel technological advances aimed at increasing production and lowering break-even costs.

"There are many examples of a country switching from being a net energy exporter to a net importer: it is very rare to see the opposite, especially when the country in question is one of the world's largest importers of oil".

On the other hand OPEC demand for their oil is up to 33.42 million barrels per day (bpd) of OPEC crude next year, an increase of 360,000 bpd from its previous forecast and the fourth consecutive monthly increase in the projection from its first estimate made in July.