Gold, Silver, Copper and Crude Oil Briefing


Crude oil prices have broken down the resistance levels of 3,870 and has rallied up till 3,950 levels. According to analysts, the $60-plus WTI price isn't sustainable in the near term, barring geopolitical risks that could push prices up.

The three major indexes on Wall Street closed at record high levels as crude oil prices reached their highest level in the last two and a half years.

Operational environment is strong, production of oil & gas is expected to rise by over 30 percent in next four years and EBITDA is likely to increase given higher realisations, analysts suggest.

CNBC says United States shale drillers, who use advanced drilling methods to unlock oil and gas from rock formations, "have frustrated efforts by major oil producing nations to reduce brimming global crude stockpiles and boost prices".

Top exporter Saudi Arabia trimmed output by 60,000 bpd, according to sources in the survey who cited stable to lower exports and lower refinery processing, putting supply further below the kingdom's OPEC target.

OPEC's cuts are helping reduce global inventories, even as production continues to rise in the United States.

"We think USA tight oil production growth warrants close monitoring as it could spoil OPEC's market-balancing efforts, pushing the market into surplus in 2018", Barclays bank said.

That makes it worth monitoring how the higher excise taxes will impact on volume sales within this year, and if it will really result in the prophetic goal of the DOE of resolving Metro Manila's traffic mess if pump prices will be higher.

In the fourth quarter of 2017, supply disruptions in Iraq courtesy of the Kurdistan region's referendum, as well as from the Saudi political purge, sent oil prices higher.

The strength of demand growth has been the little-told story of the oil price recovery with consumption expanding by nearly 5m b/d between the start of 2015 and the end of 2017, compared with annual growth of well below 1m b/d when oil was above $100 a barrel.

"The protests in Iran added more fuel to the already bullish oil market mood", said Norbert Rucker, head of commodity research at Swiss Bank Julius Baer. U.S. production rose to 9.78 million barrels in the last week.

Brent crude futures for March delivery fell 41 cents to $67.66 a barrel, a 0.6 percent loss.

"There is enough support for prices with the cold in the USA and the geopolitical factor", said Olivier Jakob, oil analyst. The new year has started with protests and instability in Iran.