System in Caribbean has 70 percent chance of tropical development


Colorado State University forecasters Philip Klotzbach and Michael Bell released their July forecast, predicting a total of 11 named tropical storms during the 2018 season - four that will likely become hurricanes.

A tropical depression forms when a low-pressure area is accompanied by thunderstorms that produce a circular wind flow with maximum sustained winds below 39 miles per hour. "The track guidance is in generally good agreement, and the NHC official forecast is close to the TVCX multi-model consensus and the HCCA guidance".

If the disturbance becomes better organized during the next few days, it could generate some rough surf along the Jersey Shore, Staarmann said. The system is expected to move west and north, deteriorating before it approaches the Lesser Antilles, an arc of small islands in the Caribbean southeast of Puerto Rico. It may reach tropical storm status soon and earn a name.

A team of meteorologists, who predicted an above-average 2018 Atlantic hurricane season in April, decreased their forecast on Tuesday.

As of the 10 a.m. update, forecasters said the system is expected to dissipate over the weekend east of the Lesser Antilles.

El Niño is a natural warming of tropical Pacific Ocean water, which tends to suppress the development of Atlantic hurricanes.

A major daily newspaper in the United States, the Washington Post, has reported the storm as "tiny and weak". But one of them was catastrophic Hurricane Andrew, which devastated portions of South Florida and killed dozens of people.