Broadly speaking, "El Nino" refers to a climate effect caused by warming sea surface temperatures in parts of the Pacific Ocean. "Although a weak El Nino is expected, it may still influence the winter season by bringing wetter conditions across the southern United States, and warmer, drier conditions to parts of the North".
The winter outlook from NOAA calls for a wetter than normal season in the far southwest corner of the state. It's also worth noting that the forecasters base their predictions on probability and don't say how much precipitation the USA will get or how hot temperatures will be.
Wetter conditions are in store for much of the southern USA, up into the mid-Atlantic while drier conditions are likely for the northern Rockies, Northern Plains, northern Ohio Valley and Great Lakes.
In the valley of the Tennessee, the OH valley and mid-Atlantic States (NJ, NY, MD and PA), the temperature will be or on the secondary level or above.
Precipitation is expected to be above normal across the southern tier of the United States, extending up into the Mid-Atlantic.
Above-average rainfall is most likely northern Florida and southern Georgia this winter. Portions of the Northern Rockies and the Northern Plains are also likely to experience drier-than-average conditions.
-Clearly this outlook doesn't provide any insane information for the Ohio River Valley / Kentuckiana. Here are five things we can expect this winter based on the new report! Portland averages 13 inches, 19 inches and 12 inches of snow in the three months in question, while Bangor averages 14 inches, 19 inches and 15 inches, respectively. "Typically it's just going to be oscillating through the course of the winter".
If NOAA's outlook holds true and much of the nation is milder than normal, it will mark the fourth straight warmer-than-normal winter for the Lower 48. Snow forecasts are generally not easily predicated more than a week in advance.
The next update from NOAA will come mid-November. "Even during a warmer-than-average winter, periods of cold temperatures and snowfall are still likely to occur", NOAA said.
-At this point of the year, we should be starting to think about winter and preparing for some cold and snowy days!