Democrats seek blueprint for bucking Trump in 2020 — AP Analysis


The day of reckoning for American politics has almost arrived. The president's party has lost seats in every midterm election since 1946, with just two exceptions: 1998 and 2002.

"If you want more caravans and you want more crime, vote Democrat".

"Everything matters and everything's at stake", Schriock said.

Republicans are bracing for a likely loss of seats in the House of Representatives but are favoured to hold on to the Senate.

Although polls generally agree on Democrats winning the House and Republicans retaining the Senate, the margins are fine and a few key races will determine whether a real upset is on the cards. "It's all fragile", he said. Pollsters have made a lot of adjustments to hopefully correct what they got wrong in 2016, but they can't tell you precisely who is going to show up to vote. That means two more years of Republicans being able to pass any legislation they wish. Races in Tuesday's election are being held within new boundaries drawn by the court's Democratic majority. Meanwhile, young voters and Latinos would have to stay home.

The political realignment, if it solidifies, could reshape USA politics for a generation.

But pro-Trump Republicans are eager to defy expectations, just as the president did with his 2016 victory. Blue-collar men, however, have embraced the unconventional president.

The Republican president has also been warning the other party will destroy a healthy United States economy if they win the keys to power.

So history is against Donald Trump.

A week ago, Democrats held a 47% to 44% lead.

Among white college-educated women, Democrats enjoy a 28-point advantage: 61 per cent to 33 per cent. Menendez is being challenged by Republican businessman Bob Hugin, 64.

What's clear is that there is more voter enthusiasm than usual among both Democrats and Republicans. "That's the thing that's really gonna threaten Gary, Indiana", former President Obama mocked in Indiana Sunday.

He's undecided going into Election Day. "But it'll be a start". Nationally, about 52 percent of Americans disapprove of Trump's performance.

Greg Valliere, chief global strategist at Horizon Investments, said Monday that the election's impact on markets is likely "not enormous".

2016 presidential voter turnout: 58.1 percent.

The hyper-charged environment is expected to drive record turnout in some places, but on the eve of the election, it's far from certain which side will show up in the greatest numbers.

The Senate (lower house) has 100 seats.

Democrats are most optimistic about the House, a sprawling battlefield extending from Alaska to Florida. "On the former, unified Republican control is likely more bullish, while on the latter, a divided government could de-escalate the current trade conflict".

For the Democrats to secure a majority, it needs to pick up 24 seats in the lower house, as 218 seats are needed for a majority, and two in the upper house, which is no small accomplishment.

McSally's Democratic opponent is Kyrsten Sinema, 42, a three-term member of the House of Representatives who spent several years of her childhood in poverty after her parents divorced.

As a result, Bloomberg's team poured money into otherwise overlooked suburban districts in states like Georgia, Washington state and Oklahoma because data revealed voters there were better-educated. At least two dozen Democrats are waiting in the wings, eager to take Trump.

Republicans are increasingly bullish that they will retain control of the Senate, but they face Democratic headwinds in the House.

US President Donald Trump has taken credit for the stock market's gains during his almost two years in the White House, and those claims are reasonable given the impact of tax cuts and pro-business policies on investor sentiment. There is a possibility that they may move for impeachment.

It is largely considered to be a Democratic stronghold as Democrats have won all 19 elections to statewide offices that have occurred since 2002.

Liberal activist Tom Steyer spent roughly US$120 million this midterm season.

Slightly more than 8.6 million voters are registered.

Steyer insisted most Democrats agree. "The far left is driven by anger & hatred - we must counter it with optimism & organization", he said in a Twitter warning heard 'round the GOP.

From speaking at events around the world to writing a memoir and, most recently, signing a massive production deal with Netflix, the Obamas' lives after the White House have been full and very lucrative.